Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 17.766004 21.465298 25.567728 30.430223 36.010792 42.189395 49.520725
2025-05-18 12.087779 16.804545 22.614186 30.187184 39.679634 51.061391 65.605139
2025-05-25 8.688227 13.559221 20.086201 29.240196 41.487868 57.033647 77.943846
2025-06-01 6.667201 11.524242 18.523555 28.957918 43.675342 63.212969 90.551391
2025-06-08 5.004772 9.572777 16.636847 27.790281 44.301352 67.118730 100.174626
2025-06-15 4.214163 8.782445 16.273003 28.661377 47.714150 74.876300 115.282420
2025-06-22 3.280462 7.520587 14.931294 27.806976 48.411727 78.736952 125.070496
2025-06-29 2.841369 7.050266 14.798620 28.799011 51.908669 86.762799 141.107270
2025-07-06 2.130317 5.862820 13.207631 27.146679 51.048445 88.181573 147.503165
2025-07-13 1.872843 5.563135 13.182927 28.153963 54.512817 96.302297 164.169927
2025-07-20 1.631825 5.238047 13.050688 28.930951 57.613513 103.976800 180.455199
2025-07-27 1.438297 4.976215 12.998752 29.830763 60.955171 112.161779 197.828222
2025-08-03 1.214094 4.605580 12.730726 30.428862 64.063550 120.538707 216.555118
2025-08-10 0.966564 4.090140 12.066260 30.194443 65.716339 126.715839 232.269583
2025-08-17 0.731434 3.508456 11.122536 29.247685 65.944410 130.474397 244.215789
2025-08-24 0.576892 3.114384 10.540473 28.965368 67.357119 136.273026 259.688159
2025-08-31 0.422568 2.633393 9.619667 27.797490 66.923917 138.790783 269.767724
2025-09-07 0.363043 2.498092 9.601237 28.668767 70.579975 148.700860 292.668898
2025-09-14 0.269374 2.149993 8.892654 27.814188 70.646243 152.129072 304.615390
2025-09-21 0.234125 2.062817 8.944278 28.806429 74.602357 162.831471 329.509409
2025-09-28 0.158552 1.690090 7.996117 27.153753 72.806503 162.755356 335.535199
2025-10-05 0.138057 1.630982 8.072975 28.161248 76.831732 173.803209 361.612331
2025-10-12 0.117396 1.552747 8.064853 28.938397 80.394232 184.109753 386.695319